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Why Delek Holdings Stock Triumphed on Tuesday
It's about to become a component of one of the more high-profile stock indexes.
Constellation Energy's Biggest AI Power Deal Doesn't Start Paying Until June 2027
Meta signed a 20-year deal built around one Illinois nuclear plant. The first contracted dollar is still nine months away.
Who are the Houthis, Iran’s allies in Yemen? - Reuters
Who are the Houthis, Iran’s allies in Yemen? Reuters
Dorsey's Block applies for federal bank charter to custody bitcoin and stablecoins
<p dir="ltr">Bitcoin showed only a modest reaction to the filing, easing from session highs near 78,900 dollars to lows around 78,000 dollars on September 8, a move too shallow to read as a clear market verdict. That restraint fits the nature of the news: a charter application signals intent, not regulatory approval, and traders have grown accustomed to a steady stream of OCC filings from crypto a
Dow Jones Futures: Dow Skids But AMD, HPE Are New Buys; Apple iPhone Event Due
Stocks fell Tuesday as oil prices and Treasury yields rose, but AMD and HPE led AI plays flashing buy signals. An Apple iPhone event is on tap.
Why Braze Stock Tumbled by Over 5% on Tuesday
It posted double-digit growth in key fundamentals in its second quarter, but this wasn't enough for a discerning market.
Latest analysis
View all →The front end is telling you the cut is coming
The 2s10s has been steepening for three months while the 2-year grinds lower. That divergence usually resolves with the front end leading. My read: the market is pricing an easing cycle that the dot plot hasn't fully acknowledged yet. I'm watching two things: (1) the trajectory of core services ex-housing, and (2) the tone of regional Fed speakers. If both soften into the next meeting, the risk is a faster repricing than consensus expects. This is a framework, not a signal — size positions to survive being early.
Memory upcycle: mid-innings, not late
Bears argue the DRAM cycle is topping. I disagree. Bit demand from AI training clusters is structurally different from the PC/mobile cycles of the past. Inventory days at the top three suppliers are still below the five-year average. That said, valuation already embeds a lot. I'd rather add on pullbacks than chase strength here. Watch capex discipline — the moment someone breaks ranks and floods capacity, the thesis changes.
Bitcoin: strong hands, thin float — but mind the leverage
Exchange balances keep bleeding lower and long-term holder supply is near records. That's a constructive backdrop. The risk isn't spot demand — it's derivatives. Funding has crept up and open interest is elevated. My base case is grind-higher with sharp, leverage-driven flushes along the way. Neutral-to-constructive, but I respect the downside air pockets.
Dollar smile: which side are we on?
The DXY softness on cooler jobs data fits the 'benign disinflation' side of the dollar smile — risk-on, dollar-down. The regime I'd worry about is the other tail: a growth scare that sends the dollar bid for safety. For now, neutral. I fade extremes in either direction and let the data adjudicate.